Metastable polymorphs often result from the interplay between thermodynamics and kinetics. Despite advances in predictive synthesis for solution-based techniques, there remains a lack of methods to design solid-state reactions targeting metastable materials. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework to predict and control polymorph selectivity in solid-state reactions. This framework presents reaction energy as a rarely used handle for polymorph selection, which influences the role of surface energy in promoting the nucleation of metastable phases. Through in situ characterization and...